Perhaps the easiest to assess of all the claims AiG makes in their article is their human population model clock for dating the species’ existence and the age of the Earth. The method of calculating the age of humanity is via assuming the population doubles at least once every 150y (a figure that they hold to be “quite conservative”). Then, with this figure, they can reliably estimate the human population at any given point in history, even up to the modern day, with these figures dictating that the modern human population could have easily arisen from only 8 people in the span of 4500 years. Additionally, if the human population had been arising over the “deep time” spans dictated by evolution, then the number of humans would be astronomical, thus demonstrating that creation science models are consistent with given anthropological data while those that hold to deep time are not.
The figures, however, are both self-serving and self-defeating. All AiG has done is taken the beginning population they wanted (eight individuals, post-deluge), put in the ending figure (seven and a half billion, modern day) and then done the algebra backwards until they arrived at the figure they wanted, with the figure giving the answer they want being multiplying the population by two every 150y. To demonstrate the fallacious nature of these figures, start with Noah and his family. Even though Noah is not recorded as having children, we will factor him and his wife Na’amah into the equation. 150y after Noah’s Flood, the human population according to AiG’s figure would be sixteen individuals. In another 150y, there would then be thirty two. The problem is almost self-evident, as AiG’s figures show that 300y after the Flood, there would only be thirty two people on the planet. Further extrapolation shows the absolute failure of these figures: AiG holds that the global flood occurred in the year 1656 B.C.E. (28) Between 1656 B.C.E. and 1-3 C.E., there is space for the human population to double approximately 12 times, once every 150y. With the human population set at thirty two individuals 300y after the Flood (meaning our starting date is approx. 1356 B.C.E.), we find that AiG’s numbers dictate that at the time of Christ, the world population would work out to sixteen thousand three hundred eighty four individuals (with the last doubling occurring approx. 6 B.C.E.). (Fig. 1)
Even though these results do not account for statistical death rates throughout history, the numbers they generate are astronomically low. The Population Reference Bureau estimates that at the time that AiG’s model predicts a global population in the upper tens of thousands, the actual population was approx. three hundred million. (29) Further, when one continues to apply AiG’s formula into the contemporary area, inaccurate and unrealistically low population numbers are also generated. Even if we assume a rate of zero deaths (which is of course not realistic), AiG’s population model misses an accurate representation of current population figures by a factor of nearly sixty, predicting a population of roughly two hundred million at a time when the population is nearing eight billion. (Fig. 2)
Lastly, Answers in Genesis asserts that using their population model demonstrates that an astronomically high number of humans would be generated if applied over a period of just 50ky (10 to the 99th power). (1) This is only a problem if you ignore the real world data and instead substitute AiG’s forced figure. Operating within a 50ky framework in reality, the human population was approximately five million individuals 8kya, with the population reaching three hundred million individuals 2kya, the real population growth rate being 0.0512% per annum (or 7.68% every 150y, a much less fantastical or contrived figure than AiG’s 100%). (30)
GENERAL RESOURCES
Baud2 Bits. (2013, August 28) Ken Ham's Ice Age: The Elephant In the Room [Video]. YouTube. LINK.
Baud2 Bits. (2013, February 19) Noah's Ark and Population Growth [Video].YouTube. LINK.
Edmonds, N. (2022, February) A Response to Answers in Genesis' "Six Evidences of a Young Earth". ResearchGate. LINK.
Flank, L. (1995) Population Rates and the Age of the Earth. LINK.
Hadfield, P. [potholer54]. (2012, February 2) Do population and magnetic fields prove a young Earth? [Video]. YouTube. LINK.
Isaak, M. (2006) CB620: Population growth. Index to Creationist Claims. LINK.
Killian, S. [Shane Killian]. (2009, September 2) Creationists and Population Growth [Video]. YouTube. LINK.
Killian, S. [Shane Killian]. (2011, August 25) Creationists and Population Growth II [Video]. YouTube. LINK.
Leibfarth, F. (2005) Human Population Growth as a Creationist Clock. University of South Dakota. LINK.
Milne, D. H. (1984) Creationists, Population Growth, Bunnies, and the Great Pyramid. Creation/Evolution Journal, 4(4). LINK.
Monroe, J. S. (1986) More on Population Growth and Evolution. Creation/Evolution Journal, 6(2). LINK.
Reed, T. [Tony Reed]. (2016, January 1) How Creationism Taught Me Real Science 30 Human Population Growth [Video]. YouTube. LINK.
Comments
Post a Comment